Recently, the India Energy Outlook 2021 report has been released by the International Energy Agency(IEA), which addresses the challenges facing the goal of ensuring reliable, affordable and sustainable energy for India’s growing population. India Energy Outlook 2021 is a new and special report of the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook Series.
Third largest energy consumer by 2030
India’s energy demand will increase by 25% in the next two decades and by 2030 India will overtake the European Union and become the third largest energy consuming country in the world. Currently, India is the fourth largest global energy consumer country after China, the US and the European Union.
Looking at the current scenario, it can be estimated that by the year 2040, India’s gross domestic product (GDP) will reach $8.6 trillion, which is expected to increase India’s energy consumption by almost double.
Prior to the global pandemic, India’s energy demand was projected to increase by about 50 percent between 2019 and 2030, but now it has reached close to 35 percent after the pandemic.
Industrialization is one of the main factors
In the last three decades, in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), India has contributed 10 percent to the global industrial value-added.According to estimates, by 2040, India will contribute 20 percent to global industrial value addition, with India leading the global growth in industrial energy consumption.
India’s growing energy needs will make it more dependent on fossil fuel imports, as India’s domestic oil and gas production has remained stagnant for years, despite government policies to promote petroleum exploration and production and renewable energy.
The increasing demand for oil could double India’s oil import bill by 2030 ($ 181 billion) by 2030 and triple (255 billion dollars) by 2040.
Demand for oil
In the current policy scenario, India’s oil demand can reach 74 per cent by 2040 by 8.7 million barrels per day.Per capita car ownership in India is projected to increase five-fold, leading India to increase demand for oil globally.
India’s net dependence on oil imports by the year 2040 (taking into account both crude oil imports and oil products exports) can rise from the present 75% to over 90% as domestic consumption compared to production Will be very much.
Natural gas demand
With a three-fold increase in coal demand by 2040, India will become the fastest-growing market for natural gas.Natural gas import dependence in India has increased from 20 percent in 2010 to around 50 percent in 2019 and is estimated to exceed 60 percent by 2040.
Demand for coal
Currently, India’s energy sector is dominated by coal, which is more than 70 percent of the total production. The demand for coal can reach 772 million tonnes by the year 2040 which is currently 590 million tonnes.
Demand for renewable energy resources
In terms of increasing demand for renewable energy, India has the highest share in the world after China.