The average temperature in India might be marginally above normal between November and December this year in the lead up to the winter as suggested by the Indian Meteorological Department’s Seasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia along with the latest South Asia Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-15). The winter in 2020 might, thus, start on a mild note, as indicated by the forecasts.
According to M. Rajeevan, the secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), winter season is expected to be moderate this year with less likelihood of extreme cold conditions. He further added that El Nino is still around so its influence will be felt on the temperature. He says, ‘Overall, the number of cold spells are getting reduced.’ The seasonal forecast for the winter season is supposed to come out soon by the Indian Meteorological Department which works under the Ministry of Earth Sciences.
El Nino is the periodic climatic pattern that occurs when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean rise to above-normal levels for an extended period. The formation of El Nino can mean significant changes to the weather around the world.
M. Rajeevan further added that it is common for the year which falls next to the occurrence of El Nino event to be one of the hotter temperatures. The heatwaves of this year are expected to decrease the winter chills.
The global effects of El Nino are often delayed and take longer than expected to show its impact so the year 2020 is likely to be warmer than 2019. Research shows that the rising temperature in climate will have a huge effect on severe weather conditions like heat waves, wildfires, droughts, flooding and violent storms.
The El Nino weather pattern might bring adverse heavy rainfall and drought to regions around the Pacific, from Peru to Indonesia and Australia. There might be a mild winter in South, New England, Hawaii, Alaska and most regions of the United States. However, the winter can be severe from the Northern Rockies to the Mid-Atlantics.