India Is Near To The Peak Of Coronavirus Cases: SBI Report Says; Falling GDP Could Be Fatal

by Shatakshi Gupta

Recently, a report released by the State Bank of India suggests that the encouraging recovery rate is a sign that the Covid-19 pandemic in the country may soon touch the peak, after which it will eventually come to an end. But when we look at some states, every day there is a huge increase in the COVID case.  Many districts in rural areas are now playing a major role in the new COVID case.  In such a situation, it seems that India will have to fight a long battle against Corona. What are the trends suggested by this report

India reaches near peak with 73 per cent recovery rate

The SBI report analyzes, in most countries peak come at 75% recovery rate.  However, it has been accepted in the report that there is no definite criterion for the recovery rate of 75% for the corona peak.  In Brazil, it reached a peak at 69 per cent.  Similarly, in Malaysia at 79.5 per cent, in Iran at 77.6 per cent, in Bahrain at 77.1 per cent, in China at 77 per cent, in Chile at 70.4 per cent of the recovery rate.  Thus, with a recovery rate of 73 per cent, India has come very close to the peak.  Some experts believe that India will reach the peak in the next two to three weeks.

Corona cases are doubling every 22 days in India


The time taken to double the corona case in India is decreasing while in other countries it is increasing.  It took 65 days for 1 lakh corona cases to come to India whereas the next 10 lakh cases came in just 59 days.  India’s current doubling rate is 22 days, which is the lowest in the world. 

Also read: Coronavirus positive Cases in India Rises

 Death rate per 1 million population


Among Asian countries, India is also at the top in terms of mortality per 1 million population.  However, in Europe and America, the rate of deaths per 1 million population is much higher than in India.  According to worldometer, a website that monitors the COVID case worldwide, the US currently has a death rate of 529 per 10 population, while India has only 38.  For Brazil, which has the second highest number of cases, this rate is 517 per million. In Spain, the rate is 613 while in Peru it is 807.

 Now most of the new cases are coming from rural areas

 In the initial months of this Pandemic, most of the cases came from the urban areas of the country and now the case turned upside down.  Nowadays, new cases are mostly from rural areas.  Currently, 54% of the country’s corona cases are in rural areas.  Andhra Pradesh is at the top in this criteria.  After that more cases are coming from 6 rural districts of Maharashtra.

The peak of Corona case has not come in at least 22 states

 In some states such as Delhi and Tamil Nadu, the peak of Corona appears.  But in states like Maharashtra, Telangana, Bihar and West-Bengal and many other peak is yet to come. Testing facilities in these states are not very good, but most people are being found corona positive in the investigation.  Based on the assessment of 27 states, SBI said that in at least 22 states, the corona peak is yet to come.

Also read: Recovered Patients In Delhi Are Contracting COVID Again; How Risky Is This?

 The fall in GDP is also very dangerous

 The SBI report says that the GDP may fall in double digits due to COVID.  A weak economy will directly affect the standard of living of a large population.  The economic side effects of COVID will also kill people.  According to the report, if the GDP of a state decreases by 10% or more, then the death rate will also increase there.  SBI also said that the GDP of the states would fall by an average of 16%.